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New York Mets vs San Diego Padres (May 7): Can Padres keep pace with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the NL West?


The New York Mets headed into the weekend with a 16-16 record, third in the NL East. They head to San Diego next week to face the Padres, third in the NL West, just 2.5 games behind the Dodgers. Noah Syndergaard is set to take the mound for the Mets and Cal Quantrill is scheduled to make his second start for the Padres.

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Offensive comparisons

The Mets are averaging 4.7 runs per game, hitting .252 as a team with 35 home runs. Jeff McNeil has paced the team with a .348 batting average and Pete Alonso leads in home runs with nine and RBI with 26. Michael Conforto is adding another power bat with six home runs, while Robinson Cano, Brandon Nimo and JD Davis each have three home runs.

The Padres will be without Fernando Tatis Jr, who is on the 10-day injured list, but the team has several other power bats in the lineup. Franmil Reyes has eight home runs and 14 RBI, while Hunter Renfroe, Manny Machado and Will Myers each have left the park six times. As a team, the Padres are hitting just .224 and averaging only 3.7 runs per game.

Pitching comparisons

On the mound, Syndergaard has struggled to a 2-3 record with a 5.02 ERA, but has struck out 49 in only 43 innings. Edwin Diaz has been a good closer, earning eight saves with a 2.13 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. Robert Gselleman and Seth Lugo have a combined 3.79 ERA in 38 innings, however Jeurys Familia and Luis Avilar has struggled to a lofty 7.56 ERA in 25 innings. As a unit, the Mets have a below average 4.86 ERA.

The Padres are 18-15 in large part thanks to the second best ERA in the league at 3.50. Cal Quantrill is making only his second appearance, allowing two runs in 5 2/3 innings his first outing. Kirby Yates has been excellent at the back end of the bull pen, saving 14 with a 1.06 ERA. Craig Stammen (3-1, 2.95 ERA) and Trey Wingenter (2.96 ERA) complete the stellar back end.

Betting Prediction

Normally the home team would have an advantage, however the Padres are just 7-9 at home and the Mets are 9-8 on the road. The Mets are averaging a run more per game than the Padres, but allowing a run more as well. The key could be the starting pitching. If Syndergaard gets back on track, he could shut down a San Diego offense that has relied on the long ball. Best bet is for a lower scoring game (go for the “under”) and for the Mets to edge the Padres.

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